Parliamentary aggro ahead for the PM

These truly are the Halcyon days of Theresa May’s leadership. She’s large in charge, enjoying stupendous support in the party base and a whopping lead in the national polls. Parliament is on recess until the autumn which means she doesn’t have blow-hard MPs to deal with.

But it can’t last – it never does. As well as the deeply controversial matter of Article 50 negotiations, there’s some extremely tough domestic calls to be made in the months ahead… Heathrow, Hinkley, HS2 and the Autumn Statement. These will create winners and losers and I guess that, given the state of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, some of the worst aggro will come from her own benches.

Outside cabinet, which is worthy of a posting of it's own, here’s my top 5 sources of Parliamentary enervation for the PM:

 1. The BeLeavers

Theresa May has a small majority. But there’s a merry band of backbenchers who have made being a gigantic pain in the arse over Europe their life’s work. The fear of the BeLeavers, which includes people like John Redwood and Bernard Jenkin (and perhaps Michael Gove now), is that though the referendum battle has been won, the war on Europe is lost. Their nightmare is that the UK continues be tied into the political structures of the EU through a messy compromise. They don’t want a long transition, they just want out. If they have any sense that the government is playing for time, they will be vicious. Of course, if the PM goes to the country and gets a bigger majority, this is less of a problem!  

2. The sacked, the demoted and the ousted

While some will gracefully and quietly go back to the back benches to chillax, others will not. The summer allows time for the slighted, the disaffected and the unhappy to lick their wounds before returning to Westminster replete with schemes, plots and wheezes. Usually a reshuffle affects a handful of people. Paul Goodman in Conservative Home reminds us quite how extensive the May overhaul has been:

Out go no fewer than 14 members of the former Prime Minister’s team: Cameron himself, George Osborne, Michael Gove, John Whittingdale, Stephen Crabb, Theresa Villiers, Mark Harper, Oliver Letwin, Greg Hands, Matthew Hancock, Anna Soubry, Robert Halfon, Tina Stowell and Andrew Feldman.

So what will all of these folks do with the time they now have on their hands?

First, there’s the memoirs. We know that DC is writing memoirs, as is former Downing Street comms chief Craig Oliver. There will no doubt be others, all wanting to present their version of events, justify decisions taken and settle the odd score.    

Second, there will the offers of ‘helpful advice’ in the opinion pages of the Daily Telegraph and on Conservative Home. For a nice example, check out Lord Maude’s advice to Chris Grayling – the Transport Secretary – on what to do about Heathrow. Mr Maude – formerly one of Cameron’s inner circle and Cabinet Office  - says the government should go for Heathrow Hub. This was not the option favoured by the Airports Commission partly on the grounds that it would cause more noise for those living near Heathrow. Including me! George Osborne is on the backbenches now, and presumably will offer expert comment on Twitter or if asked by the Financial Times. Perhaps Strictly Come Dancing beckons.

Third there are those who will seek to make mischief because, what else would you do in such circumstances? I could not possibly speculate on who those characters might be or what they will get up to – but they will surely show their independent mindedness.

3. The House of Lords

The Lords gave the government a bloody nose on several occasions in the months before the referendum, most notably on tax credits.

The question as to whether the PM has the prerogative powers to trigger article 50 is unresolved and will be heard by the courts later in the year. If the courts decide Parliament should have a role in triggering Article 50, the Lords could easily hold the passage of a Bill up (though if I were being cynical, a delay in the Lords would buy time for the Government to get its act together).

Baroness Wheatcroft, a Conservative peer, thinks the Lords should try to stall the Government invoking article 50 because it’s not clear what Brexit means. In a pithy piece of comment for the Guardian, Wheatcroft writes:  

“Brexit means Brexit,” the prime minister repeats. She might, with as much clarity, declare that “lunch means lunch”: that could translate as a sandwich al desko or a three-course feast at a top restaurant.

The very idea that the Lords could slow the process down drives the Leave camp bonkers. Could this force May to re-open Lords reform? The Strathclyde proposals for Lords reform were kicked into the long grass before the referendum. Perhaps they could be dusted off, or even expanded?

4. Jeremy Corbyn

Victory for Corbyn in the Labour leadership contest is now all but assured in September following a High Court case about something or other to do with the leadership contest which went in his direction. His people have also achieved a clean sweep in the Labour National Executive Committee. This means the Corbyn takeover of the Labour party is complete. What we don’t know is whether the PLP will finally fall in behind Corbyn or whether the Parliamentary party will split.

Tom Watson, that most impartial of observers, told the Guardian that ‘every single person I talk to on the left and right of the party thinks this [a split] is a bad idea. I’ve not had anyone muse with me about it. I’ve not had anyone gossip with me about it. I’ve not heard anyone raising it as an issue.’

Corbyn is nothing if not dogged and perhaps Labour might start looking like a credible party of opposition again in the months ahead.

5. SNP

The SNP have a major strategic question of their own to wrestle with: whether to go for another independence referendum or not. Having made a big play early on, Nicola Sturgeon must decide whether to roll the dice once Article 50 is triggered. In the meantime, the SNP group in Westminster – which has over 50 MPs - remains a coherent and disciplined caucus. There have been times in recent weeks where the SNP has asked the toughest questions in Parliament.  

Tweet of the Day

On the news Andy Burnham has been selected as Labour’s candidate for the Manchester mayoralty.