Bernard Means Brexit

Theresa May’s mantra that ‘Brexit Means Brexit’ (BMB) is a very clever form of words. It signals action. It signals resolution.  But until the government defines Brexit, this tautologous formulation means very little. In itself, all it really says is that we aren’t remaining a member of the EU. That leaves very many doors open and only one firmly closed.

Since ‘BMB’ was coined, Theresa May has said that the UK will seek a bespoke British relationship with the EU but remains open-minded about what that might look like. This rules out an off the peg model such as EEA membership (it’s politically unacceptable as it would require the maintenance of free movement).

So BMB now means a few things:  

  • we aren’t staying in the EU
  • we aren’t going to be a member of the EEA
  • and we already know we can’t be Switzerland

That’s actually quite a lot of stuff ruled out already. However, a new kind of British model guarantees neither quick exit or a clean break from the EU and it does suggest fiendishly complex negotiations. This makes some on the Leave side extremely suspicious indeed.

Exhibit A:

Bernard Jenkin MP, a prominent BeLeaver, has a  piece in the FT today  which displays the classic symptoms of new condition Brexita Nervosa. This is the fear that, having won the referendum battle, the Leave vision will be scuppered by a PM and Chancellor who never wanted to leave, aided and abetted by a Parliamentary majority that pays lip service to Brexit but thinks it’s a bloody stupid thing to be doing. Jenkin argues that there really isn’t any discussion to be had about how Brexit should happen at all. For him, Brexit means we should just get the hell out of Dodge as quickly as possible (i.e. months) and sort out the details later once we have heroically thrown off the shackles of EU membership.   

What explains this almost childlike impatience to get out? And why his out-of-hand rejection of any substantive transitional arrangements? It all suggests to me that he is worried that they are going to be stitched up like kippers if this goes on for too long. This I find fascinating, especially given that prominent leavers lead DIT, Dexit and the FCO. Perhaps the fear is that once Theresa May gets immigration under control,  the public loses interest in Brexit. Five or six or seven years into a long, dull and extremely technical negotiation who will be paying attention any more? Perhaps in the interim one or more of the three Brexit Horsemen – Davis, Fox and Johnson – will no longer be in position (not a bad bet given their histories)? And maybe Theresa May will have a very much larger majority, and won’t have to worry quite so much about unruly back benchers.

And bit by bit it all loses impetus.  Brexit might mean Brexit. But perhaps it won’t be what Brexit means to Bernard.