Brexit Day 6: ‘For heaven’s sake man, go!’ , What does the Fox say?
That a mad day like today feels like more like normality says something for the extraordinary times we have been through. I think what is beginning to become clear is that we now need to get on with the future. Our biggest priority is to ensure we can talk to policymakers to reinforce the need for continued Single Market access. It’s not going to be easy, but it’s what we have to do.
Conservative leadership: Crabb goes fishing but what does the Fox say?
In his declaration speech Stephen Crabb said that the labels ‘Remainer’ and ‘Brexiteer’ were divisive, and that it was time to accept the will of the British people and move on. The rugby playing Welshman is running as a compassionate Conservative. He said there would be no snap election if he was leader. Late in the day Tory veteran Liam Fox threw his hat in the ring. Keep up with runners and riders here (via Guido)
Conservative Home has membership poll showing May just ahead of Boris (yeah, I know, polls). However this indicates more for support for the Leave candidates in total, so it will be interesting to see how support is allocated when we come to the final two. Bo Jo is reported to have 100 MPs behind him now, with wingman Gove leading the ring around.
Michael Gove’s wife Sarah Vine accidentally copied a member of the public into an email in which she implored her husband to get specific guarantees from Boris on his position before giving his support. In the most delicious example of leadership gamesmanship yet, the Sun’s Tom Newton-Dunn reported that Theresa May stood up Boris Johnson yesterday, snubbing a meeting brokered by senior MPs Justine Greening and Anne Milton.
- Declared: Stephen Crabb, Liam Fox
- Certain to run: Boris Johnson; Theresa May; Andrea Leadsom
- Considering: Jeremy Hunt; Nick Morgan
Labour leadership: ‘For heaven’s sake man, go’ (David Cameron, PMQs today)
Jeremy Corbyn is still holding on and Cameron punished him for it at PMQs today. The PM called for him to resign in the national interest. Extraordinary. The Parliamentary Labour Party has all but deserted Corbyn. His panel of economic advisers, including Richard Murphy, Danny Blanchflower and Thomas Piketty have resigned. Angela Eagle is a favourite to challenge. It’s going to be down to the membership to decide, which is loaded with supporters of Corbyn’s left-wing Momentum group as the Tweet below from Pesto confirms. In another twist the Unions met today and to decide whether to renew their support for Corbyn (still unclear whether they will). Unless Corbyn resigns, there is no guarantee a challenger will win. The schism may be coming.
The UK’s future relationship with the EU
Cameron went to Brussels yesterday. He said that he wanted the closest possible relationship with Europe and was L to be going. Can’t have been an easy experience. At the same time he said that the EU failing to give him the emergency brake on migration that had led to the Remain defeat. Jean Claude Juncker gave the Commission world view when he rejected that claim and said it was down to the British public being fed a diet of negative stories about the EU. Surely it is time to wake up and smell the Earl Grey?
Article 50 corner: An extremely good reminder last night from my wife that Article 50 exit negotiations do not include trade (what an exciting household we live in!). As our special report points out it will cover issues such as UK-EU budget contributions, EU-UK investments and status of EU/UK citizens. A big question we need to ask is to what extent other negotiations - for example on single market access - will be paralleled. Much reporting and analysis has elided the two as though our exit negotiation will necessarily settle our trading relationship. This is not necessarily the case.
Machinery of Government
Oliver Robbins has been appointed as the head of the new EU Unit in the Cabinet Office. Robbins is currently Second Permanent Secretary at the Home Office. Oliver has had a long Civil Service career spanning HM Treasury, Downing Street and the main board of an operational agency. From January 2014 to September 2015 he was Director General at the Civil Service, leading on Civil Service reform. Prior to this, he was Deputy National Security Adviser to Prime Minister David Cameron and the UK’s National Security Council.
P.S. Look out for the Chilcott Inquiry on the Iraq War, due on Jul 6. Seven years in the making, it is likely to make explosive reading, striking to the heart of Government, and will take Brexit off the front pages for at least a couple of days next week.
Who is the muscle in Brussels?
Is a power struggle taking place between the Commission and Council over who is going to lead Brexit negotiations? The fight is being pitched as the pragmatic Council vs the true believers in the Commission. No doubt the Commission wants to hurt Britain pour encourager les autres. Coverage from Politico.
Sadiq and ye shall find?
The London Mayor has the largest personal mandate of any politician in the UK and the capital voted Remain by a big margin. The City is now looking to Mr Khan to be its chief lobbyist and there is every sign that he is gearing up for it. Khan has named Rajesh Agrawal deputy mayor with brief to protect City. Agrawal is a self-made millionaire who founded Rational FX. He also acted as Khan’s business adviser during his campaign.
Lib Dems resurrected
The result has been the lifeline the Lib Dems need. They have been piling on new members since Friday – and I understand they are now taking 6 weeks to process memberships such has been the demand.
Companies and markets
Vodafone said that they would review their HQ location depending on the deal the UK gets. Visa said that it may move jobs out of the UK. Our holiday to the US looks like it will be slightly less ruinously expensive than it did yesterday. I should have bought dollars when I had the chance. FTSE 250 in firm green territory. Lloyds Bank shares are still in the tank, but have come back a bit today (I bought mine at 75p).
It’s not just UK banks that have been hit. I would be keeping an eye on stocks like Intesa Sanpaolo (below), a well-established Italian bank. Just look at the impact Brexit has had there. They must be mad as hell about this. Soros and Marshall Wace shorted Deutsche Bank filings reveal. Little wonder that gold is up over 8 per cent in a month.
The City: Hollande's revenge
The euro bloc has always jealously eyed London's euro clearing. It drives the eurozone crazy that the City, outside the euro zone, clears euro denominated derivatives and securities. George Osborne fought a successful rear guard to keep it here last year in saying that a 'location policy' was discriminatory under single market rules. That was then. An article from Reuters quotes an unnamed EU official as saying: "The multi-currency union narrative is over. That's why you will see the European Banking Authority going either to Paris or to Frankfurt…That's why you can be sure the ECB will install its location policy now. Not tomorrow, not in two weeks, but this is going to happen over the next two years."
Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem told the BBC that the “Brexiteers have to be honest, they say they want to be independent but if you want to be independent and you don’t accept the European rules and regulations then there will be no access in the future and the I think that’s hard to imagine”.
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Second referendum
A number of pieces overnight in the press and rumours swirling on the circuit suggesting that Matthew Elliot and Dominic Cummings of Leave don't actually want Brexit. Some will recall that Cummings said that a Leave vote would enable high stakes brinkmanship, allowing the UK to negotiate a way better deal with the EU and then go back to the country with another referendum. This was an idea Bo Jo seemed to have some sympathy for about a year ago.
If the plan really was to march 17 million people to the top of the hill, win the vote, in the process unleashing economic, constitutional and diplomatic crisis as a negotiating ploy, that seems to me to be something that even Francis Underwood would have thought a bit risky. In these bizarre times all scenarios should be kept on the table. However, the central facts are these: we have voted leave (and the people that voted for it wanted it), Europe will not respond to blackmail as a strategy, and the Government is moving forward with Brexit. Angela Merkel too said that Brexit was ‘irreversible’.
Scotland
Nicola Sturgeon is holding meetings across Brussels today in a bid to build support for Scottish single market access. Donald Tusk, President of the Council, did not meet her. Juncker said the she had won the ‘right to be heard’. Interesting.
Sturgeon has hit early roadblocks with member states. Spain’s Mariano Rajoy says he "believes everyone is extremely against it" and that "if the UK leaves, Scotland leaves". Francois Hollande said that negotiations would take place with the UK only.
Trading places
An occasional section on who is saying what on trade:
- Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House of Representatives, said that United States should pursue a free trade agreement with the United Kingdom once it has formally separated from the European Union. This would happen in parallel with TTIP.
- Mexico has drafted a trade deal with the UK
- South Korea wants talks
- Rumours that Commonwealth countries now gearing up to talk trade. 60 million New Zealand sheep can’t be wrong. This was always the dream of leavers – to quickly negotiate deals with key partners free of the encumbrance of the EU agricultural lobby.
However, what about services? These deals will most likely be about trade in goods, of which the UK is an avid importer. As a service economy, where are the deals that will compensate for the potential loss of services exports to the EU?
Thought for the day: The most powerful men in the world could soon be women
Colleague Dan points out that we could (hopefully?) see the US run by Hillary, the UK run by Theresa (or perhaps Andrea) and Germany run by Angela by the end of the year.
Picture of the day (from yesterday)
From Jeremy Corbyn’s car-crash Shadow Cabinet meeting yesterday…
Pic: Sky News