These truly are the Halcyon days of Theresa May’s leadership. She’s large in charge, enjoying stupendous support in the party base and a whopping lead in the national polls. Parliament is on recess until the autumn which means she doesn’t have blow-hard MPs to deal with.
But it can’t last – it never does. As well as the deeply controversial matter of Article 50 negotiations, there’s some extremely tough domestic calls to be made in the months ahead… Heathrow, Hinkley, HS2 and the Autumn Statement. These will create winners and losers and I guess that, given the state of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, some of the worst aggro will come from her own benches.
Outside cabinet, which is worthy of a posting of it's own, here’s my top 5 sources of Parliamentary enervation for the PM:
1. The BeLeavers
Theresa May has a small majority. But there’s a merry band of backbenchers who have made being a gigantic pain in the arse over Europe their life’s work. The fear of the BeLeavers, which includes people like John Redwood and Bernard Jenkin (and perhaps Michael Gove now), is that though the referendum battle has been won, the war on Europe is lost. Their nightmare is that the UK continues be tied into the political structures of the EU through a messy compromise. They don’t want a long transition, they just want out. If they have any sense that the government is playing for time, they will be vicious. Of course, if the PM goes to the country and gets a bigger majority, this is less of a problem!
2. The sacked, the demoted and the ousted
While some will gracefully and quietly go back to the back benches to chillax, others will not. The summer allows time for the slighted, the disaffected and the unhappy to lick their wounds before returning to Westminster replete with schemes, plots and wheezes. Usually a reshuffle affects a handful of people. Paul Goodman in Conservative Home reminds us quite how extensive the May overhaul has been:
Out go no fewer than 14 members of the former Prime Minister’s team: Cameron himself, George Osborne, Michael Gove, John Whittingdale, Stephen Crabb, Theresa Villiers, Mark Harper, Oliver Letwin, Greg Hands, Matthew Hancock, Anna Soubry, Robert Halfon, Tina Stowell and Andrew Feldman.
So what will all of these folks do with the time they now have on their hands?
First, there’s the memoirs. We know that DC is writing memoirs, as is former Downing Street comms chief Craig Oliver. There will no doubt be others, all wanting to present their version of events, justify decisions taken and settle the odd score.
Second, there will the offers of ‘helpful advice’ in the opinion pages of the Daily Telegraph and on Conservative Home. For a nice example, check out Lord Maude’s advice to Chris Grayling – the Transport Secretary – on what to do about Heathrow. Mr Maude – formerly one of Cameron’s inner circle and Cabinet Office - says the government should go for Heathrow Hub. This was not the option favoured by the Airports Commission partly on the grounds that it would cause more noise for those living near Heathrow. Including me! George Osborne is on the backbenches now, and presumably will offer expert comment on Twitter or if asked by the Financial Times. Perhaps Strictly Come Dancing beckons.